ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 – Why average score makes the best type of ODI – Sambit Baal

Runfests usually end games as competitions. But the team’s score is a little less than 300? now we’re talking

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South Africa vs Pakistan: Is there more where this came from? AFP/Getty Images

Ah, the thrill of the big goal. The throbbing continuity of the chase, the feeling of constant danger, and the big hits, certainly the big hits: the sight of watching the ball fly into the sky or run across the field. The feeling of impossibility – let’s soak it in while it lasts – gradually turns into anticipation, and then into outright expectation. How sweet is hope, and how it kills.

When the journey is over, if the match has gone too far, you find yourself exhausted, having devoted yourself completely to every swing, every moment of the game, and this Knows where your loyalties lie, whether you feel the warmest glow or what you might be tired of. And if you’ve been neutral, you’re feeling really blessed to have experienced something wonderful.

Whatever your streak, if you’re a sports fan, the poignancy of the finale is never lost on you. So when you see Jimmy Neesham joining the New Zealand XI late, and batting for the first time in this World Cup, desperate for another run, you are with him in his frustration. That run would have kept him at the crease, and his team’s hopes, which he had so valiantly boosted in the final overs, would remain alive. As he sinks to his knees, bows his head, closes his eyes, your mind flashes back to that evening at Lord’s in 2019 when Neesham was at the other end and his batting partner in that Super Over, Martin Guptill, found himself at the same end. Kind of stranded, let the first World Cup trophy slip from their grasp.

Here in Dharamsala, after the last ball has been bowled and Australia won by five runs, it is not even lost on you that 771 runs have been scored in a match. a world cup record, a bowler has the final decision. Mitchell Starc finished the game as Australia’s most wasteful bowler, conceding 89 runs without taking any wickets in nine overs. But when it came to the score, he defended 13 runs from five balls, after giving away five wides on his second ball.

What a match. What an ending. The World Cup finally came to life. Two crackers in two days. Finally.

but but. The utopian ODI is also a miracle, and of the rarest kind. The reality is that once the team batting first sends the ball into orbit, chasing too often remains in orbit, leading to the most hollow of experiences. In most cases, the best approach for such games, such as the one between South Africa and England, between two alpha hitting teams (at least potentially) in a batting paradise like Wankhede, is to enjoy the spectacle of batting in isolation. Is. It was wonderful to watch Heinrich Klaasen and Marco Jensen that afternoon: even taking into account the heat and the way England were flailing, the power and majesty of the striking was jaw-dropping.

But as is usually the case with a team chasing around 400, the rest of the evening was wasted, the greatest mercy being that England got themselves out of the mess in just 22 overs, on the contrary A few days later there was a defeat against Bangladesh. The same opponent, who lasted till the 47th over. There are many similar one-sided matches in T20 too, but in an ODI the agony lasts for a much longer period, with the decision already being taken halfway through.

You can score 142 runs off 87 balls, like Heinrich Klaasen and Quinton de Kock did against Bangladesh, but the more they do things like that, the less chances the game will have of being competitive. ICC/Getty Images

That’s why I’m a fan of thrilling thrillers. Of course, there is the strange thrill of defending a low score – as the Netherlands did against Bangladesh on the same day as the Australia-New Zealand runfest, and India did against England a day later – but it is the ODIs that produce moderate scores. , on pitches that don’t reduce bowlers to run-servers, is what fascinates me the most. Take the example of last week’s second thrilling game: South Africa’s stumbling, nervous chase against Pakistan, where the No. 11 staved off some thunderbolts before the No. 9 sealed the victory with a deft shot.

It’s an individual thing, but I think this feast is great only if you can enjoy a wide range: aggressive bowling and aggressive batting; Wickets that have been earned and not gifted; Two of the harder runs, where the skill lies in directing the ball into the gap, not just belting the ball out.

Texture makes ODI matches richer and this is what this format has in comparison to T20, which can be monochromatic. And of course, when bowlers are in play, the match usually remains competitive for longer periods.

That’s why when it was suggested in some quarters that the Chennai pitch for the India-Australia match was not suitable for one-day cricket, I was a little disappointed. Had Australia failed to get past 250, or had Mitchell Marsh caught Virat Kohli’s wrong pull in the eighth over, it could have been a major blow. Anyway, chasing the target remained tense for India for about 30 overs. Batsmen standing first and then trying to score runs can be much more interesting than hitting boundaries as a birthright.

Don’t take my word for it, statistics show that big scores in the first innings usually produce the dullest contests. Not a single score of 350 or above has been chased in ODIs since the start of the 2019 World Cup, which, contrary to the hype and expectation before the tournament, was memorable for its low-scoring thrillers, including the final and a Was also included. Semi-finals.

Even if we take a generous margin of 25 runs as the cut-off to define close games, only four of the 29 games with over 350 targets reach the cut-off. It is a nominal 14%. Reduce that score band to 300-324 and the number of close games increases by 40%.

The real sweet spot? Score between 250 and 274. They not only produce a higher percentage of close finishes (42.6%), but also produce almost equal chances of the chasing or defending team winning (49% to 51%).

Sometimes it can feel like the ODI game is under siege – Test cricket has the heart of the connoisseur and T20 has the power of the zeitgeist – but ODIs cannot suffer from an identity crisis and try to be like the 20-over game. can not do . Instead, conditions should be created to allow it to become the best, most competitive.

Sambit Bal is editor-in-chief of ESPNcricinfo @sambitbal

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